Shopify CoSell program · Arctic Grey

Shopify CoSell Program Report

Prepared for Tom Arehart and the Shopify account teams · September 15, 2026 · every figure is read live from the CoSell engine database at September 15, 2026, about 18:30 UTC unless a date says otherwise

In flight · 31 percent of account-list domains reached

1. The headline answer

The reason is deliberate. The program sends under strict deliverability caps: about 20 emails per day today across two warmed domains (10 each, on a bounce-governed ramp toward 25 each), because inbox placement is the asset a cold program cannot buy back. Within that budget, breadth wins: 70 percent of each day's capacity is reserved for first touches, so every domain gets its first email before any domain gets its fifth.

Account-list domains	278 distinct (81 mid-market, 197 large-account ledger rows; no domain sits on both lists)
Reached today	87 (26 MM, 61 LA) · 31 percent. Reached means at least one email to a decision-maker at the domain was accepted by the sending provider; 1 of the 87 saw its only email bounce, so 86 domains hold a delivered email today.
Reached on September 1	30 (14 MM, 16 LA) · 11 percent
Two-week change	+57 domains · 2.9 times
Co-marketing list	11,814 unique valid leads staged (12,992 sheet rows) · 234 brands admitted · 0 emailed yet

Account-list domains receiving their first email, by week (live)

Co-marketing list, screening state (live)

2. Per-list scorecard

Why an unreached domain is unreached (September 10 report, held classes)

Live status counts (approved, needs contacts, needs review, excluded) were read today; the held-class breakdown is the September 10 Thursday report, the last full census. The two differ by a few domains because the pipeline moved between the dates.

3. Effectiveness funnel, human-verified

Opens and clicks below are machine-filtered: an event counts only when it lands more than 300 seconds after dispatch, which removes gateway prefetch and pre-dispatch scanner traffic. Raw counters run far higher and are not used as headline numbers anywhere in this report: the sends ledger carries 2,337 raw click webhooks and 1,938 raw open webhooks all time, of which 15 clicks and 183 opens survive the 300-second clause program-wide, and the stricter burst filter used for rep alerts keeps fewer still.

Emails sent, all time	1,707 accepted by the provider since June 29, to 166 brands (all sources: the Shopify account lists and Arctic Grey's earlier prospect pool)
Emails sent since Sep 8 (00:00 UTC)	186 · 185 of them to account-list brands
Week of Sep 3 to 10 (Thursday report)	143 sent · 33 human opens · 5 human clicks
Week of Aug 27 to Sep 3	132 sent · 22 human opens · 1 human click
Doctrine change, the likely driver	Since September 1 every subject states one concrete, checkable fact about the recipient's own store (their cart 404s before checkout loads, sitemap.xml returns 404, an error page served with HTTP 200). Measured on machine-filtered engagement at small n: defect-naming subjects clicked at 2.4 percent (6 of 250) against 0.2 percent (2 of 1,094) for all other subjects, about 12 times. The September 7 re-measure of the new era shows human opens at 13.2 percent (20 of 152) against 7.0 percent (94 of 1,344) before the change; the Wilson intervals are narrowly non-overlapping, so this is evidence, not proof.

Account lists only, all time (live)

People emailed	226 decision-makers at 87 brands · 152 first-touch emails · 8 bounces (1.9 percent)
People who opened (filtered)	38 people at 24 brands · 78 filtered opens, 30 of them since Sep 8
Clicks (filtered)	14 at 4 brands · 13 of them since Sep 8 (see the scanner caveat in section 5)
Replies and calls	0 valid replies and 0 attributed calls from account-list brands so far; the median account-list domain received its first email between 9 and 10 days ago

Written replies (program-wide)

Four genuine reply conversations are known, all with brands from Arctic Grey's earlier prospect pool and none from the account lists; they are named in section 5. The reply ledger also holds 44 rows from 10 people at 9 brands imported from the support desk on August 13. None of those rows is linked to a program send, 4 of the 9 brands have no program email on record, and on inspection 39 of the 44 are Calendly booking notifications or empty bodies rather than written replies, so that ledger count is not reported as replies here. Every reply captured since September 1 must clear the send-linkage fence before it counts, and none has yet.

Calls

The Calendly ledger holds 215 bookings since June 1 (192 held, 20 canceled, 3 open). It is Arctic Grey's whole Calendly account, not this program alone. Send-level attribution (a signed redirect on every Calendly link in every email, old or new) went live September 1; 24 bookings across 14 brands are attributed to program emails, 23 of them held, and 8 of the 24 are Arctic Grey's own team testing the flow. None is with an account-list brand yet. Last Thursday's report showed 19 calls booked in its window; on inspection 16 of those rows were Calendly reconciliation records for August meetings written on September 5 and 7, and 3 were parsed from booking emails, so they were not 19 new bookings. Meetings dated September 1 or later: 22 booked, 3 attributed to a program email.

Deal board (September 10 report, all brands, 141 rows)

Stages through call held derive automatically from engine truth (sends, filtered events, the reply ledger, Calendly). The replied and call-held rows in this census come from the August 13 desk import and the Calendly reconciliation, so they are largely history from before the account lists arrived; no account-list brand sits above engaged. Later stages are human-recorded with an append-only history.

4. Outcomes, honestly

Signed wins recorded	1, Arctic Grey services: A1 American, a Shopify AE-owned account, signed before this program and recorded by backfill on August 12
Shopify contracts recorded	0
Outcome recording by reps	Live since September 2 · 0 human-recorded outcomes since
Where the pipeline sits	87 account-list domains at first touch · 24 with a filtered human open · 4 with a filtered click · 0 replies · 0 calls. Program emails to the account lists began the week of August 10 (one LA domain was already in the engine and had been emailed in July), and a replatform decision at a mid-market or large merchant runs one to three quarters from first touch. The program is at first-touch stage for most accounts, and this report does not dress that up.

5. Highest intent right now

Account-list brands by filtered engagement (live)

Caveat: clicks on a send with few or no opens (Christmas Designers, Dexter) match a link-scanner pattern and are shown as breadth, not proof. People engaged is the column to read.

Account-list people and the email they engaged (live)

Genuine conversations, Arctic Grey prospect pool

Status as recorded by Arctic Grey from the inbox threads and the Calendly ledger. None of the four traces to an account-list email; they predate the lists.

Breadth signal, all brands (September 10 report)

Raw open and click counters on these brands are inflated by appliance scanners, so only the people-engaged count is shown. One of the ten (American Art Clay Company) is on the account lists; three others are Arctic Grey pool brands owned by Shopify AEs.

6. Deliverability discipline

Bounce rate, all time	2.87 percent (49 of 1,707) against a 2 percent line; the Thursday monitor read 2.86 percent (45 of 1,572 tracked sends). Account-list sends alone: 1.9 percent (8 of 425).
Bounce rate, Sep 8 to 15	2.2 percent (4 of 186)
Complaint rate	0
Circuit breakers	Both sending domains closed (healthy) at the time of this read. A 24-hour breaker on resend.arcticgrey.com tripped September 10 (1 of 15 bounced) and closed September 13.
Bounce-governed ramp	arcticgrey.org breached the 2 percent trailing line on September 7 (2 of 75) and auto-throttled to 10 per day with a 7-clean-day hold; 3 clean days are banked today, so the step to 15 lands about September 19. resend.arcticgrey.com stepped back to 10 per day on September 11 after the breaker event with 0 clean days banked; its September 10 bounce stays in the trailing 7-day window until September 17, so the 7-clean-day hold can start about September 18 and the step to 15 lands about September 24. Combined cap today 20 per day, ceiling 25 per domain.
Recipient verification gate	Every recipient must clear the bounce ledger, the suppression list and an extrapolated-block check, then provider verification, before dispatch. 994 contacts have passed; 1,003 contacts with an address wait on the verification provider, whose key is not yet active, and 175 more sit in a bounce-risk hold cohort the same provider clears. The dispatcher held between 65 and 80 first touches per run on September 14 and 15 for this reason (69 on the latest run).
Machine-filtered scoring	Opens and clicks count only 300 seconds or more after dispatch; burst, fingerprint fan-in and paired-link speed filters remove appliance traffic. Reply validity is fenced to contacts the engine actually emailed, after their first send, for every reply captured since September 1; the 44 legacy desk-import rows predate the fence and are not counted.
Quality gates before any send	ICP check, email quality lint (no em dashes, no exclamation marks, no leaked platform strings, no first-name-led subjects), and an advisory veto that parks doubtful brands for judgment (17 parked across both lists in the September 10 report).

7. What has been built

• Autonomous pipeline. Import, platform detection, buying-committee enrichment, drafting, quality lint, auto-approval with an advisory veto, verified dispatch and follow-ups, advancing every 15 minutes with a six-hour approval sweep.
• Intent scoring. Machine-filtered opens, clicks, replies and calls scored per person and per brand, with rep attribution from the Shopify sheets.
• Rep leaderboards and same-day alerts. Weekly rep emails and same-day hot-signal alerts to the Shopify rep who owns the account, plus Slack Connect DMs where a rep's Slack identity is paired (18 of 23). Delivered so far: rep emails on September 2 and 9 to the 2 reps whose accounts carried new human signal, and the first same-day alert on September 15.
• Thursday report cadence. The weekly CoSell report generates every Thursday, stored with a shareable signed link.
• Deal board. One stage vocabulary per brand, contacted through closed won, derived from engine truth, with human-recorded outcomes and an append-only history.
• Deliverability system. Per-domain circuit breakers, a bounce-governed ramp, the verification gate, and suppression and bounce ledgers.
• Co-marketing staging. 11,814 leads in a staging table, screened at 200 per day before any brand enters the factory.

8. The two-week plan, September 15 to 29

Measurable targets for September 29

Basis: live aggregate reads from the CoSell engine database on September 15, 2026, about 18:30 UTC; weekly-window figures and held classes from the September 10 Thursday report. Human opens and clicks are machine-filtered. Small counts carry their n. Reached means at least one email accepted by the sending provider for a decision-maker at the domain. Prepared by Anthony Spallone, Arctic Grey.